The Future of Wind

I’m working an application to RES, and I have to say that their application form is a lot more enjoyable to write than those of many large energy companies. One of the questions was so interesting that I completely went over the word limit: I’ve decided to write an answer to that question here in more detail. The question is:

WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES FACING THE WIND INDUSTRY IN THE NEXT 5 YEARS?  

I'm going to split my answer to this question into offshore and onshore wind, as I think that they have different challenges facing them.

Offshore

Offshore wind is massively expanding from commercial to industrial scales: I saw this in my offshore wind supply chain work over the summer of 2011 with the Crown Estate. For a good visualisation of the scale of the growth, see page 8 of this pdf: comparing the areas of sea devoted to Round 3 (currently building) to Rounds 1 and 2 (mostly built) is quite startling. The challenges that I can see in this high growth are getting a strong supply chain set up and stretching the technology we have now to work far offshore: these wind farms are going up in incredibly harsh environments, and need to keep working with as little maintenance as possible. The financial backing is there from the government and investors, so there is no reason that offshore wind won't reach its target of 25GW by 2020. This is a remarkable achievement, considering the UK had the demand for 44.5GW in the last hour (the realtime demand right now will be different!). Obviously, the actual power generated will be much less; this power is the totalled "rated power" of all the wind turbines installed (for an explanation of rated power, see the leaflet I did for the EWB workshop). In any case, offshore wind is here to stay, and will be a big part of our energy mix.

Onshore

Onshore wind is a bit trickier, in that its expansion depends on the acceptance of local communities, as shown perfectly in the BBC’s Windfarm Wars. I think the government has the most power here, because of two things: planning regulations and the feed in tariff (FiT). If planning regulations are relaxed so that it is easier for developers such as RES to put up a wind farm, then more will go ahead but potentially to community resentment, as the power to protest is taken from them. However, if they are made stricter, the developers may not build as there is too much red tape to get through. Equally, if the FiT is reduced drastically, there is less economic sense for a developer to build, and if it remains higher this will increase the chance of a project being economically worth it from a developer’s point of view. Onshore wind is a fascinating issue, and seeing how the mood has shifted from hopeful acceptance to angry refusal in some cases is, I think, a great example of how some technologies can go out of fashion. 

Personally, I'm undecided about onshore wind. The scale of offshore is so much bigger than of onshore that it may not be worth all the effort to try and put up a wind farm near a complaining community when that farm will only generate a small output, and generate a lot of negative feeling towards the developer. As long as onshore wind farms are profitable, they will be constructed; as soon as they stop making economic sense, they won't get built.

So there you go, my take on the near future of wind power. What do you think- let me know in the comments!